Structural channels through which escalation in Taiwan has historically moved global markets. Direction/strength are typical historical reactions, not a forecast or investment advice.
Taiwan Strait
✈ 41 aircraft · 76% of normal🌐 100% connectivity
▼Semiconductor / tech equitieshighTaiwan (TSMC) ~60%+ of global foundry output, advanced chips ~90%.
▼TWD / Asian FXhighCapital flight + escalation risk.
▼Global equity indices (S&P 500)highA core supply-chain risk that reverberates globally.
Historically (20 escalation days): median -0.29% over 5d · matched the expected direction 55% of the time
▲VIX (volatility)highGlobal risk premium/volatility spikes sharply in a broad escalation.
Historically (20 escalation days): median +4.5% over 5d · matched the expected direction 60% of the time