Slow structural indicators (World Bank, UNHCR) that calibrate how event activity is interpreted. Descriptive, not a forecast.
Fragility: severe · 75/100Inflation 138.81% · Unemployment 7.53% · Population under 15 40.21% · Displaced (refugees + IDPs) 23.15%
Population · 2025
51.7M
GDP (US$) · 2025
$60.2B
GDP per capita · 2025
$1,165
Inflation · 2022
138.8%
Unemployment · 2022
7.5%
Refugees (origin) · 2025
2.8M
Internally displaced · 2025
9.1M
Market & economic exposure
Structural channels through which escalation in Sudan has historically moved global markets. Direction/strength are typical historical reactions, not a forecast or investment advice.
Red Sea / Bab-el-Mandeb / Suez
✈ 1 aircraft · 50% of normal ⚠🌐 100% connectivity
▼Suez transit volumehighShips reroute around the Cape of Good Hope → +10–14 days.
▲Container freight (Asia–Europe)highRerouting raises freight rates and delivery times.
▲Brent crudemediumPart of oil/LNG flows transit Bab-el-Mandeb.
Historically (87 escalation days): median +4.32% over 5d · matched the expected direction 67% of the time