Slow structural indicators (World Bank, UNHCR) that calibrate how event activity is interpreted. Descriptive, not a forecast.
Fragility: low · 3/100Inflation 1.66% · Unemployment 2.24% · Population under 15 27.14% · Displaced (refugees + IDPs) 0.04%
Population · 2025
116.8M
GDP (US$) · 2025
$487.1B
GDP per capita · 2025
$4,171
Inflation · 2025
1.7%
Unemployment · 2025
2.2%
Refugees (origin) · 2025
807
Internally displaced · 2025
43,500
Market & economic exposure
Structural channels through which escalation in Philippines has historically moved global markets. Direction/strength are typical historical reactions, not a forecast or investment advice.
Strait of Malacca / South China Sea
✈ 121 aircraft · 92% of normal🌐 100% connectivity
▲Brent crudemedium~1/3 of world seaborne trade and much of Asia's oil imports transit Malacca.
Historically (19 escalation days): median +9.27% over 5d · matched the expected direction 79% of the time
▲Asia–Europe shippingmediumAlternative routes are longer and congested.