Slow structural indicators (World Bank, UNHCR) that calibrate how event activity is interpreted. Descriptive, not a forecast.
Fragility: low · 23/100Inflation 0.3% · Unemployment 15.49% · Population under 15 36.03% · Displaced (refugees + IDPs) 2.7%
Population · 2025
47.0M
GDP (US$) · 2025
$254.4B
GDP per capita · 2025
$5,410
Inflation · 2025
0.3%
Unemployment · 2025
15.5%
Refugees (origin) · 2025
270,671
Internally displaced · 2025
997,334
Market & economic exposure
Structural channels through which escalation in Iraq has historically moved global markets. Direction/strength are typical historical reactions, not a forecast or investment advice.
Strait of Hormuz / Persian Gulf
✈ 91 aircraft · 90% of normal🌐 100% connectivity
▲Brent crudehigh~20–25% of seaborne oil transits the Strait of Hormuz.
Historically (46 escalation days): median +3.96% over 5d · matched the expected direction 65% of the time