Slow structural indicators (World Bank, UNHCR) that calibrate how event activity is interpreted. Descriptive, not a forecast.
Fragility: low · 2/100Inflation 1.91% · Unemployment 3.24% · Population under 15 24.25% · Displaced (refugees + IDPs) 0%
Population · 2025
285.7M
GDP (US$) · 2025
$1.4T
GDP per capita · 2025
$5,060
Inflation · 2025
1.9%
Unemployment · 2025
3.2%
Refugees (origin) · 2025
9,215
Market & economic exposure
Structural channels through which escalation in Indonesia has historically moved global markets. Direction/strength are typical historical reactions, not a forecast or investment advice.
Strait of Malacca / South China Sea
✈ 121 aircraft · 92% of normal🌐 100% connectivity
▲Brent crudemedium~1/3 of world seaborne trade and much of Asia's oil imports transit Malacca.
Historically (19 escalation days): median +9.27% over 5d · matched the expected direction 79% of the time
▲Asia–Europe shippingmediumAlternative routes are longer and congested.