4 active events in China right now, plus 5 recorded in the last 30 days. Every event is sourced and cross-verified.
⚠ Coverage in this country is structurally limited (censorship / restricted press). Event counts understate reality; physical signals (satellite fires, earthquakes, internet connectivity) remain reliable.
Slow structural indicators (World Bank, UNHCR) that calibrate how event activity is interpreted. Descriptive, not a forecast.
Fragility: low · 0/100Inflation 0.06% · Unemployment 4.62% · Population under 15 15.41% · Displaced (refugees + IDPs) 0.01%
Population · 2025
1.4B
GDP (US$) · 2025
$19.5T
GDP per capita · 2025
$13,862
Inflation · 2025
0.1%
Unemployment · 2025
4.6%
Refugees (origin) · 2025
153,962
Market & economic exposure
Structural channels through which escalation in China has historically moved global markets. Direction/strength are typical historical reactions, not a forecast or investment advice.
Taiwan Strait
✈ 64 aircraft · 125% of normal🌐 100% connectivity
▼Semiconductor / tech equitieshighTaiwan (TSMC) ~60%+ of global foundry output, advanced chips ~90%.
▼TWD / Asian FXhighCapital flight + escalation risk.
▼Global equity indices (S&P 500)highA core supply-chain risk that reverberates globally.
Historically (15 escalation days): median -0.4% over 5d · matched the expected direction 60% of the time
▲VIX (volatility)highGlobal risk premium/volatility spikes sharply in a broad escalation.
Historically (15 escalation days): median +6.39% over 5d · matched the expected direction 60% of the time
Strait of Malacca / South China Sea
✈ 167 aircraft · 127% of normal🌐 100% connectivity
▲Brent crudemedium~1/3 of world seaborne trade and much of Asia's oil imports transit Malacca.
Historically (19 escalation days): median +9.27% over 5d · matched the expected direction 79% of the time
▲Asia–Europe shippingmediumAlternative routes are longer and congested.